23 mars 2009

By Alexandra Hudson Alexandra Hudson – Sun Mar 22, 6:39 am ET YALOVA, Turkey (Reuters) – Party loyalists wave flags and cheer but an air of hopelessness prevails as veteran Turkish opposition leader Deniz Baykal, loser of four national elections, addresses his faithful. Turkey’s ruling AK Party expects to retain its 26-point lead in local elections on March 29 partly due to the failings of Baykal and his party, the staunchly secular center-left CHP, and the widespread feeling that there is no credible opposition. Two years after Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan won 47 percent of the vote in the parliamentary election with his Islamist-rooted party, the local poll is a chance for him to hammer home his enduring popularity — to the despair of traditional elites who fear he wishes to undermine the secular identity of Turkey. It is with such individuals that Baykal garners his support. Yet while backing his party on ideological grounds, few believe he can win or attract the votes of an emerging Anatolian conservative middle-class now fiercely loyal to Erdogan. “Given the global economic crisis you could have expected a dramatic fall in support for the government. But voters simply cannot see an alternative,” said Adil Gur, director of Turkish polling institute AG. Much of the dejection over the lack of an opposition focuses on Baykal, the 70-year-old former academic who AK Party members joke is their “greatest asset.” But there are also doubts if replacing him would make any difference. The global financial crisis has hit Turkey hard, reducing years of stellar economic growth to a painful slow-down. But the AK Party remains popular for a series of political, social and economic reforms, boosting per capita income and bringing relative stability after years of turmoil. Analysts say a lack of strong opposition is leaving Erdogan free to pursue controversial constitutional reforms, which without Turkey’s oldest Republican People’s Party (CHP) risks reigniting political turmoil in Turkey. MISSED OPPORTUNITY Rather than attacking the government’s tardy response to the crisis, Baykal has stuck to the ideological rhetoric of his 17-years at the helm, accusing Erdogan of boosting the role of Islam in public life and betraying Turkey’s secular ethos. Watching Baykal on a crisp, sunny afternoon in Yalova, a small town facing Istanbul across the sea of Marmara, people profess a love of the party but crave youthful new leaders. “I support CHP because it is the party of Ataturk and I worry that the AK Party will change Turkey,” said 19-year-old student Ebru Sezgin, referring to the revered founder of the modern Turkish republic in 1923, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. “It is true that Baykal has lost a lot of elections, and Turkey needs more young politicians. But at the moment we just don’t have them,” she added. Addressing the crowd, Baykal appears much younger than his years. He has the air of a genial gameshow host as he begins, draped in a local football scarf, a gimmick both he and Erdogan have adopted at election rallies. But he quickly becomes more animated as he launches a personal attack on the prime minister. He has clung on as leader of Turkey’s main opposition party, which has traditionally drawn the votes of elites and the higher-educated, predominantly in urban areas, by convincing supporters that every election loss for the CHP only makes his mission more crucial. “In our country, unfortunately, there are a lot of dishonest politicians and gullible people who believe them,” said CHP supporter Kemal Cinar, 34, describing Baykal as an “honest man.” Critics say Baykal has clung on to power within the party and further thwarted its chances by removing potential rivals. They say Baykal casts himself as a “prophet” of the doom Erdogan will bring on Turkey, yet he also behaves erratically — recently welcoming women to the party wearing full black robes, months after opposing legislation to allow the Muslim headscarf to be worn in universities. Such moves point to a lack of direction for the party. “Claims that if Baykal was not leader of the CHP the party would get 30-40 percent of the vote are not true, as the problem is not Baykal but CHP policies in general,” Gur said. Tarhan Erdem, a former CHP general secretary who now runs a political research group, agrees, saying he is not optimistic about the future of a party which has such ossified structures. The CHP refutes charges it missed its chance in not making more of the economic crisis. “We are criticizing the government, but it is not being focused on by the media. Because they are scared of Erdogan, and are being pressured by him,” said CHP provincial leader in Istanbul Gursel Tekin. Dogan Yayin, Turkey’s largest media group, was hit with a $500 million tax penalty after months of public mud slinging between its newspapers and the AK Party, prompting some to question the level of press freedom in Turkey. The government has rejected such charges, saying it was purely a tax issue.